Exchange Rates. Forecasting Guide. Risk vs Uncertainty
G. Dan Hutcheson
The Chip Insider®
Comments, Questions & Answers: “Dan, what’s up with exchange rates?”
The Euro is at parity with the Dollar and the Yen is approaching 140 to the dollar. Back at the start of 2021, the Euro was around 80 cents and the yen near 100. This is going to be a swing factor in next year’s sales and market share distribution.
Dan’s Guide to Forecasting: SEMICON West made it clear we’ve entered a difficult forecasting environment, so it’s a good time to back over my favorite tools and methods. I’ve been forecasting since the mid-seventies, so it’s reasonable to expect I’ve learned plenty from the successes and failures. Over the years I’ve learned accuracy is far more about the mind than it is about the tools, key concepts in forecasting, rules of forecasting and laws. Or to paraphrase Mike Tyson, "Everybody has a model until reality punches them in the face."
Maxims Reloaded: Risk vs Uncertainty: Know which is the basis behind any decision that needs to be made. Misreading situations of risk versus uncertainty in decision-making can result in bad decisions because the best method under one can be the worst under another. It’s how the world’s financial system almost collapsed between 2007 and 2008.
“When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind” — Henry Ford
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